Starmer's Allies Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Effort to Prevent Mayor's Parliamentary Re-entry
Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly started a concerted campaign to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a comeback to the House of Commons. This move comes after the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an impending byelection.
Serious Obstacles in the Selection Process
Multiple members on the Labour Party's ruling NEC have reportedly predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection process. This is primarily due to the sizable presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are keen to avert any potential leadership challenge.
The Labour party machine is said to have swung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned resignation, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the considerable expense and political risk of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Last year, he prompted consternation within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he stated that many MPs had encouraged him to run for the party leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to possibly stand for the Labour leadership should a contest to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against overstating the level of any planning, suggesting he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Current Climate and Public Approval
Against a backdrop of polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole senior Labour personality with consistently positive public approval ratings.
If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then win the by-election against challenges from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all before any potential bid for the leadership.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
High-ranking Labour sources have said that a "Stop Andy" operation is already in progress, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally said that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to cease discussion of possible leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
NEC members have allegedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around ÂŁ500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.
Several sources also shared fears about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.
Union Influence and Procedural Fears
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. There is also speculation the committee could impose an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
Yet, a supporter warned against assuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.
The trade unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently remaining quiet, insiders suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The constituency in question holds a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform is likely to mount a significant challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.
If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the backbenches.
The departing MP stated he was stepping down due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He is also subject to a standards inquiry related to his membership in an offensive online group.
