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For a brief period, the former US president seemed to take a resolute approach concerning the Ukrainian conflict. After issuing statements of "serious consequences" in August in case Russia's president persisted hindering peace talks, Trump finally imposed substantial penalties on Russia's two largest energy firms, these major energy companies. This move seriously affected Putin's capability to finance his war effort in the region.

Yet, with his latest 28-point peace plan for the conflict, reportedly drafted by US and Russian officials excluding Ukrainian or European input, he has clearly returned to his pro-Putin position.

Benefiting Military Action

Trump's initiative would in practice benefit the Russian leader for invading a sovereign nation while leaving Ukraine's democratic system in peril. Although bold declarations that "Ukraine's sovereignty will be upheld", much of the initiative effectively weaken that essential independence. Seen as a Kremlin dream would likely be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Reflecting his real-estate experience, Trump continues to view the war as a mere territorial dispute, like giving Russia a section of Ukrainian soil will satisfy the president. However, Russia's war is not only about controlling a destroyed swath of industrial-devastated territory in Ukraine's east. It is about the nation's democratic governance – and Putin's obvious goal to destroy it so it ceases to serves as an attractive example for the Russia's population of the responsible leadership that his increasing dictatorship denies them.

Territorial Surrenders

Although maintaining in status the currently divided Ukrainian provinces of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, the plan would compel Ukraine to give up the entire Donetsk region. In addition to rewarding Russia with territory that its forces have been failed to seize in exceeding a decade of warfare, this surrender would render Ukrainian defensive positions dangerously undermined.

The area is the site of Ukraine's well-known "stronghold system", the fortified defensive positions that represent a critical barrier to invading forces. Trump would have Ukraine surrender these positions, providing Russian forces a clear route to the capital in case he subsequently opt to renew the war.

Military Limitations

Furthermore, in a move that would make renewed fighting simpler for the Russian military, Trump would require Ukraine to cut the size of its troops from their present 800,000 to 850,000 personnel to a maximum of this lower number. Importantly, the plan sets no such limits on the invading army.

In what appears as a concession to Putin's attempts to portray Ukraine's legitimate government as extremists, the proposal asserts: "All Nazi belief system and activities must be opposed and forbidden." Apparently to underscore this element, it demands that "Ukraine will hold political contests in this period" of a truce. At the same time, the proposal imposes no requirement that the Russian leader risk his authoritarian rule by conducting elections in his own country.

Security Assurances

Certainly, the initiative has Russia commit not to "invade neighboring countries" and to "establish in legislation its policy of peaceful relations towards Europe and Ukraine". But taking into account that the Russian leadership has broken similar treaties in the history – for example the 1994 agreement, in which the Russian government promised to respect the nation's territorial integrity in exchange for relinquishing its Soviet-era atomic arms, and the Minsk accords, in which Moscow committed to a ceasefire and a restoration of occupied territory in the Donbas to Kyiv – for what reason should we trust Putin this time?

That is why the Ukrainian government has been so insistent on external security guarantees. While the proposal warns of a "strong joint military response" in case the Russian Federation renew its aggression, and states that "The nation will receive reliable protection assurances", the specifics include fuzzy to alarming. The proposal would not only block the nation accession to NATO but also preclude Nato members from deploying forces on Ukraine's soil, thus preventing the peacekeeping contingent, reportedly led by Britain and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been counting to deter Putin from restoring his weakened military, rearming, and resuming aggression.

Global Response

An additional parallel deal reportedly would offer Ukraine with a alliance-like defense commitment, in which any future "significant, planned, and continuous aggression" by Russia on the country "would be considered as an act of war jeopardizing the stability and safety of the allied countries." This indicates a military response. But unlike a capable national defense – the nation's primary deterrent against future hostilities – the effectiveness of the parallel accord would rely on the willingness of Western powers, like the US administration, to act militarily to Russia's hostilities, a response they have {not