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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple formula. It commonly serves as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the largest resurgence wins the award. In reality, it fuels an annual debate about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior coaching or just the most shocking surprise.

Yet the current race is distinctly unique. The group of contenders is remarkably deep. It has been the year of comebacks. The league has been messy, with recent conference winners fading and recent strugglers rising together. During an ordinary season, a coach leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. But in such a turbulent and entertaining season, he's facing several other exceptional coaches.

This is how the projected ballot could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters love QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been given the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged dominance. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an offense designed solely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a steady helping of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that frees wide-open receivers consistently. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been capable to spin magic from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Almost each decision – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the organization with the immense expectations he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme genius but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a typical year, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. But this is not a typical season!

Where his candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are famously fickle. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained success. However Johnson comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around football of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has nailed the off-field stuff, which wasn't a guarantee after his early public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal staff cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, Coen hired newbies. From the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

After an early hot start, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason setback had the team wobbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking reliable ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's number three seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it shaped it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has regressed since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

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